GP Short Notes

GP Short Notes # 587, 24 October 2021

China: The hypersonics missile tests
Keerthana Nambiar

What happened?
On 17 October, the Financial Times published a report stating, "China tested a nuclear capable hypersonic missile in August that circled the globe before speeding towards its target." The report quoted five unnamed individuals familiar with the test stating, "the Chinese military launched a rocket that carried a hypersonic glide vehicle which flew through low-orbit space before cruising down towards its target." According to the intelligence brief, three sources confirmed, "the missile missed its target by about two-dozen miles" the other two said, "the test showed that China had made astounding progress on hypersonic weapons and was far more advanced than US officials realized."

On 18 October, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian denied the report claiming it was a "routine test of space vehicle technology of spacecraft's reusability." On 19 October, Global Times reported, the Chinese launch as a missile launch is a "wild guess," and the US is exaggerating it to "accommodate its own domestic political and national strategic needs." "As long as Washington does not incite or create strategic confrontation between major powers, the world will be peaceful," concludes Global Times.

What is the background?
First, recent reports on China's hypersonic portfolio. In recent times, there have been multiple reports on China developing hypersonic missiles and the DF-17 hypersonic weapon programme. Publciations from the Jamestown Foundation, The New York Times, and Washington Post referred to the same. These reports hint towards the People's Republic of China (PRC) pursuing to augment its arsenal through various hypersonic delivery systems. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has been heavily investing in hypersonic missiles and is now researching hypersonic cruise missiles (HCM) and hypersonic glide vehicles (HGV). From 2018 to 2020, Xinhua, South China Morning Post, and China Daily reported multiple deployments of weapons ranging from medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM), HGVs, and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) with the capacity of reaching the US mainland. 

Second, the investment in hypersonic technology. It started with the US in the 1980s. The hypersonic research waxed and waned over the period with the participation of countries hoping for superpower ambitions. The rush for hypersonic missiles is most visible in the US, Russia, and China possess most advanced hypersonic missile weapons. Australia, India, France, Germany, and Japan are still developing the weapon and plans to test it in the coming years. North Korea claims to have tested the hypersonic missiles in September, joining the small pool of countries with hypersonic missile capabilities. Currently, China aims to develop weapons that can reach distant targets, although their ballistic missiles are as fast as hypersonic systems. The objective is to attain unpredictable maneuverability that can change the course of direction with a speed of five times more than sound resulting in better penetration systems compared to the US Ballistic Missile Defense systems. The hypersonic missiles are the Chinese defensive mechanism from the US' growing aggression in the Indo-Pacific, ensuring stronger nuclear power and keeping the US out of China's internal matters. 

Third, the US concerns about China's technological development. The  geopolitical tensions between US and China have seemingly accelerated China's nuclear ambitions. The lack of transparency by China unsettles America making it apprehensive of taking any further actions. Washington has constantly been monitoring and tracking PLA's growing power due to the visible patterns. Even though this is not the first time the US has been wary of China's actions, the ongoing cross-Strait situation with Taiwan becomes a friction flashpoint increasing the concern.

What does this mean?
First, China's hypersonic program. The fast development of catastrophic weapons gives Beijing a greater incentive to strike first. This presents potential risks to regional stability and understanding the Chinese strategic thinking on hypersonic technologies.  

Second, the use of hypersonic as a counter system between the US and China. Hypersonic seems to be the latest inventory in which the big powers are trying compete. The hypersonic technology's maneuverability and capacity to cover greater distances shrinking the shooter-to-target timeline, is the crown jewel. 

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